Just 339 days till the 2012 national Presidential election polls open, and 31 days till the Iowa Caucus opens. We are getting down to the final stretch in the GOP primary race. As we get closer to the first primaries, more people will start paying attention to the GOP candidates. Given we are about to head into the holiday season, the candidates don’t have too much time to establish and cement their lead in the race.
This last couple of weeks in the GOP race was dominated by two big events, the continued revelation of Cain accusers, and the continued rise of Newt Gingrich to the top of the list of candidates. He is now officially the new “flavor of the month.” The question is will he remain at the top, or follow the same path as Cain, Perry, and Bachmann? Meanwhile poor old Romney has once again seen one candidate fall from the lead, only to be replaced by another. Will he be able to rise above his ceiling? And will the conservative vote settle on one anti-Romney candidate, or stay divided, allowing Romney to fulfill his ‘inevitability.’
Personally I am still undecided between the candidates. Last week I opinioned about how I was really liking Newt. This is still the case, but with every other front runner before him (other than Romney) he is running through a gauntlet of attacks on his record. Actually I appreciate the vetting process that he and every other candidate goes through. Better that this is done now than in the general election. However he has a number of issues that will be hard to get around. Not the least is the TV video of Him and Pelosi endorsing global warming. I am certain we will see that video in various attack add until November should he win the nomination. In fact Paul has already done so: http://bit.ly/t8xqe3.
Newt has the following challenges to staying in the lead:
- Convince electorate that he is mostly conservative.
- Give adequate explanation regarding the positions he appears to have switched on.
- Fundraising: at one point Newt’s campaign was in debt.
- Feet on the ground: he will need to quickly setup the organization on the ground to get the votes out.
Personally I think the items above are a tall order, I am not certain he can accomplish all of that. However, his biggest assets are his outstanding debate performance, his experience as the leader of the ‘republican revolution’ in 94, and that he is not Romney.
This last point may be enough to push him over the top. Romney cannot get above his ceiling, which I believe he will not rise above unless all other candidates have no hope. It seems every other candidate has had their chance. Newt may win only because he is the last candidate standing that is not Romney. I believe if he falters, the GOP nominee will be Romney.
