My GOP Nominee Scorecard: Newt on Top

Just 339 days till the 2012 national Presidential election polls open, and 31 days till the Iowa Caucus opens.  We are getting down to the final stretch in the GOP primary race.  As we get closer to the first primaries, more people will start paying attention to the GOP candidates.  Given we are about to head into the holiday season, the candidates don’t have too much time to establish and cement their lead in the race. 

This last couple of weeks in the GOP race was dominated by two big events, the continued revelation of Cain accusers, and the continued rise of Newt Gingrich to the top of the list of candidates.  He is now officially the new “flavor of the month.”  The question is will he remain at the top, or follow the same path as Cain, Perry, and Bachmann?  Meanwhile poor old Romney has once again seen one candidate fall from the lead, only to be replaced by another.  Will he be able to rise above his ceiling?   And will the conservative vote settle on one anti-Romney candidate, or stay divided, allowing Romney to fulfill his ‘inevitability.’

Personally I am still undecided between the candidates.  Last week I opinioned about how I was really liking Newt.  This is still the case, but with every other front runner before him (other than Romney) he is running through a gauntlet of attacks on his record.  Actually I appreciate the vetting process that he and every other candidate goes through.  Better that this is done now than in the general election.  However he has a number of issues that will be hard to get around.  Not the least is the TV video of Him and Pelosi endorsing global warming.  I am certain we will see that video in various attack add until November should he win the nomination.  In fact Paul has already done so: http://bit.ly/t8xqe3.

Newt has the following challenges to staying in the lead:

1. Convince electorate that he is mostly conservative.
2. Give adequate explanation regarding the positions he appears to have switched on. 
3. Fundraising: at one point Newt’s campaign was in debt.
4. Feet on the ground: he will need to quickly setup the organization on the ground to get the votes out.

Personally I think the items above are a tall order, I am not certain he can accomplish all of that.  However, his biggest assets are his outstanding debate performance, his experience as the leader of the ‘republican revolution’ in 94, and that he is not Romney. 

This last point may be enough to push him over the top.  Romney cannot get above his ceiling, which I believe he will not rise above unless all other candidates have no hope. It seems every other candidate has had their chance.  Newt may win only because he is the last candidate standing that is not Romney.  I believe if he falters, the GOP nominee will be Romney.   

Newt Becoming the Not Romney Candidate

With now only 359 days till we elect our next president, and 51 Days until the Iowa Caucuses, it has been another crazy week in the GOP presidential nomination.  Highlights this week included new witnesses in the Herman Cain scandal, and a debate with the worst performance by a candidate since the 1992 VP nominee James Stockdale (infamous for the “Who am I, Why am I hear?” speach).  However, as the week is drawing to a close and the dust is settling, I believe Newt Gingrich is proving to be the big winner.

Previously I theorized that as interest in Cain begins to wane,  Newt Gingrich would be the next ‘flavor of the week’.  I believe that this is happening now.  Newt has been slowly and steadily gaining ground in the general standings, largely due to his debate performances.  The RCP GOP polling average as of 11/11 shows that Newt gained five Percentage points in the last ten days, and two points in the last two days.  Also the McClatchy-Marist Poll has Newt ahead of Cain 19 to 17%. 

At the same time, Herman Cain’s poll numbers are starting to slip.  RCP has him down 4 points in the last 10 days.  The same polls show Cain as having dropped below Romney.  Possibly the scandal is finally catching up to him.  Personally I am not convinced there is anything to the recent accusations.  However I think he has managed this scandal very badly, and I doubt he will he will be able to handle attacks in the general election any better.

On the other hand Mitt Romney‘s numbers have stayed flat.  Despite his ‘inevitability,’ He cannot seem to climb above 25%.  The the distrust of the conservative branch of the GOP will likely prevent him from getting much higher.  For him to win the conservative vote must remain split between two or three top tier ‘Not Romney’ candidates. 

Poor, poor Rick Perry.  His terrible performance in the debate Wednesday is likely the nail in the coffin for him.  I can’t say it any better than Meredith Jessup (@MeanwhileinDC):

RIP Rick Perry presidential campaign. Time of death: Wend @ 8:15 p.m. Last words: ‘Oops.’

He will have to have a stupendous performance in the next six debates (whew) between now and Jan third.  Not likely.

Ron Paul is Ron Paul.  He will continue to do well among his base.  He has consistently been the advocate and defender of the original intent of the constitution (in most situations).  I think he has helped move the conversation to the right more than anyone else in the last four years (save Obama).  Many of the ideas he had in ‘08 seemed outlandish and extreme.  Now however conservatives are calling more of his ideas their own. 

I have been asked by a John Huntsman supporter to include him in my analysis. So here it goes:  He, like Rick Santorum and Michelle Bachmann have no chance of winning the nominations (sorry, you asked).  I hate to be cruel, but IMHO these candidates need to consider if there presence is the race is preventing a better candidate from having a chance (Huntsman need not worry). 

Personally I am starting to like Newt.  He is clearly the best of the candidates at explaining and defending conservative values.  He has a (mostly) conservative record including service with Ronald Reagan, the first Contract with America, the ‘94 house majority, and a balanced budget for 4 years.  He has significant government (and business) experience.  Although Cain’s business experience is very appealing to me, I don’t want a candidate who is so new to politics that he takes a ‘my way or the highway’ approach to governing.  This approach only works if a majority of representatives in both houses share your agenda.  I am no moderate, I want our representatives to stay true to conservative values.  But it takes political experience to get your agenda done, either through political arm twisting, or by taking your case straight to the America people.  Newt has experience in both.  His moral issues are a liability, however they are somewhat over blown (the ‘deathbed divorce’ did not really happen).  Although attacks similar to Cain’s are likely to appear, Newt  has shown he is more than able to manage the press. 

Update: Just watched the CBS/National Journal Foreign Policy debate.  I would add to the above that Newt did very well as usual, Romney did well also. However Cain seemed unprepared and out of his element. You can only say 'I will figure it out when I get there' so long.

My Republican Presidential Nominee Scorecard Nov 4

It is 453 days until the next president is sworn in.  Almost a year till our nation chooses that President, and hopefully sends the current occupant to the unemployment benefits line.  And we are only 60 days until a GOP nominee is chosen in the first primary, the Iowa Caucuses.  Given that much of the time between now January 3rd are in the holidays, we are close to crunch time for the GOP candidates. 

It is amazing how volatile this primary has been so far this year.  The last month and especially this last week have been particularly so.  Between Herman Cain’s unexpected rise, his current scandal, and other candidates such as Perry taking swipes at each other, there are a lot of fireworks.  It is anyone’s guess which one of the top 4 candidates, will be at the top 30 days from now. 

Personally, although I have been following this election closely, I have yet to make up my mind about who I will vote for.  In these last few weeks, my preferences have changed almost daily.  So here are the current standings (as of 11/4) for my nominee in order of preference.

Newt Gingrich (trending up) – Newt has slowly but surely moving up in the polls for a long time.  He brings solid government experience, a good foundation in conservative values, and clearly the best articulator and debater of those values.  He does carry some baggage, not just his moral issues, but some of his positions he has taken over the years as a pundit are liabilities.  However, when I step back and look at Newt, I can’t say he would not make a good president with conservative values, and the ability to articulate and implement those values.  If Herman Cain does fall, I believe he (and or Perry) will immediately make great gains and could even be the next ‘flavor of the month’ as Sarah Palin would say.  

Herman Cain (trending down) – I like Herman Cain and until recently would have been very happy with him.  I am not a fan of a flat tax, but he has a well thought out plan.  He is also a conservative’s conservative, possibly the most conservative of all the candidates in the top tier.  This current scandal would not have changed my opinion of him, however the way he has handled it does!  He has been unclear, has changed his story several times, blame shifted and baselessly accused other candidates.  The attack seems to have caught the campaign completely off guard.  Given they are newbies, I would give them a couple of days to get things together.  However it is 5 days later and the Cain campaign still does not have clear message.  This speaks of political naivety that will not serve us well if Cain is the nominee or even the president. 

Rick Perry (trending flat) – I liked Perry initially, and was recently looking at him again.  However looking at his record, he has a lot of non-conservative liabilities beyond the HPV vaccine and college tuition for Illegals (see http://bit.ly/vJk5Tz).  His inability to debate and communicate well are huge negatives.  Like with Cain, I can understand it would take him a while to hone his debate skills, but not this long.  And it given the Cain scandal, it was SO the wrong time to give his surreal NH speech (http://bit.ly/vEfZOa). However I like his recent economy plan, if only because it was well thought-out and decently communicated plan.  As I see it, He is a very good alternative to Romney.

Mitt Romney (trending down) – Ah, where to start with Romney.  What get’s me most about Romney is his inability to consistently hold the same position.  Right now he (mostly) gives lip service to being on the right side of conservative issues.  However he has switched positions so many times, [add clever statement about whip-lash here].  Previously he has been pro-choice, then not pro-choice, then pro choice again, and finally pro-life.  At one time, Romney has been pro amnesty, anti Bush tax cuts, anti contract with America, pro Brady bill… (http://bit.ly/w4pDBC), you get the idea.  Obviously the real issue here is his trust-worthiness.  Is he saying what he really believes now, or is he saying whatever he needs to be elected.  After his ridiculous statement about Christ in 2008 (“I believe that Jesus Christ is the Son of God and the Savior of mankind”) it is difficult to trust him.  Let me be clear: Mormons and Christians do not believe the same thing about Christ, and to try to say so is deceptive and frankly dishonest.  (Please do not flame me: I am not making a statement on Mormonism, just on Romney’s presentation of Mormonism.)  However on the plus side, Romney has been running for years, has a very organized campaign.  This will be very good thing to have when going against Obama’s political steam-roller in the general election.  Like his policies or not, I am confident in his ability to govern. 

In the end I will gladly vote for any of these candidate in the general election (any day of the week and twice on Tuesday).  However I don’t want to settle for a moderate.  So I (and I expect a huge percentage of the GOP) are looking very closely at these candidates. 

What I want in a President.

Fellow tweeter @JsrRoger asked for a list of qualities I want in a president.  I sent her some replies as did other tweeters.  The full list can be seen here: http://rogersdaughter.wordpress.com/2011/10/26/collection-of-what-qualities-twitter-americans-want-in-a-leader/, but I thought I would repeat that here and add my own embellishments.

What I want in a President:

• I want a president that is a true conservative: Has the will to reduce the size and shrink the role of government.
• I want a president that will limit the Government to first priorities namely defense, infrastructure, rule of law.
• I want a president that will act as a great communicator. Uses bully pulpit to explain and sell conservative philosophy.
• I want a president that will have political courage to make difficult but real cuts to “necessary” government programs
• I don’t want a president that majors in compromise, esp. of fundamental conservative principles.
• I want a president with understanding, experience and belief in  capitalism/supply side economics
• I don’t want a president that uses jealousy to pit American’s against each other.
• I want a president that will restore American Exceptionalism and restore honor to the ideas of freedom and democracy.

Defeat of President Obama within Grasp of GOP

Scott Elliott from ElectionProjection.com takes a close look at a possible loss by Obama in the 2012 election.  Based on his detailed analysis of states considering electoral votes, polling data and 2008 voting results, he believes a defeat of Obama is a very real possibility.  He writes concerning the states that were close in 08:

President Obama won North Carolina (0.32%), Indiana (1.04%), Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (1.19%) and Florida (2.82%) by less than 3%.  Assuming equal distribution across the nation, a GOP-ward swing of a mere 1.5% in the popular vote would flip these states to red and narrow Obama's EV margin to 305-235.

The battle here in NC was a certainly a very close call.  The state has traditionally been red, however it has been trending blue over the last few years.  Obama’s win in ‘08 was by the closest of margins, a difference of only 25k votes, and the win represented a 12 point swing for the state from the previous election (http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/electionresults.shtml).  If the President is still unpopular come November 2012 causing his base to stay home, It is almost inconceivable that he will keep his .32% advantage here.

Nationally, the swing for president changed from a 2% margin for Bush in ‘04 (http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/tables.pdf) to a 7% margin for Obama in ‘08 (http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2008/tables2008.pdf), representing a 9% shift.  Assuming Obama looses 6% of that margin, Obama could loose several other key states.  Elliott writes:

And if his portion of the popular vote were to decline just 3% more, Ohio (4.59%), Virginia (6.29%) and Colorado (8.95%) would give their 40 electoral votes and an electoral victory to the Republican nominee.

Elliott concludes the election could be won or lost in these states. Although these are encouraging numbers for Republicans, anything can happen in the next few months.  Plenty of reasons to stay engaged and active.