Scott Elliott from ElectionProjection.com takes a close look at a possible loss by Obama in the 2012 election. Based on his detailed analysis of states considering electoral votes, polling data and 2008 voting results, he believes a defeat of Obama is a very real possibility. He writes concerning the states that were close in 08:
President Obama won North Carolina (0.32%), Indiana (1.04%), Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (1.19%) and Florida (2.82%) by less than 3%. Assuming equal distribution across the nation, a GOP-ward swing of a mere 1.5% in the popular vote would flip these states to red and narrow Obama's EV margin to 305-235.
The battle here in NC was a certainly a very close call. The state has traditionally been red, however it has been trending blue over the last few years. Obama’s win in ‘08 was by the closest of margins, a difference of only 25k votes, and the win represented a 12 point swing for the state from the previous election (http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/electionresults.shtml). If the President is still unpopular come November 2012 causing his base to stay home, It is almost inconceivable that he will keep his .32% advantage here.
Nationally, the swing for president changed from a 2% margin for Bush in ‘04 (http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/tables.pdf) to a 7% margin for Obama in ‘08 (http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2008/tables2008.pdf), representing a 9% shift. Assuming Obama looses 6% of that margin, Obama could loose several other key states. Elliott writes:
And if his portion of the popular vote were to decline just 3% more, Ohio (4.59%), Virginia (6.29%) and Colorado (8.95%) would give their 40 electoral votes and an electoral victory to the Republican nominee.
Elliott concludes the election could be won or lost in these states. Although these are encouraging numbers for Republicans, anything can happen in the next few months. Plenty of reasons to stay engaged and active.
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