Newt Becoming the Not Romney Candidate

With now only 359 days till we elect our next president, and 51 Days until the Iowa Caucuses, it has been another crazy week in the GOP presidential nomination.  Highlights this week included new witnesses in the Herman Cain scandal, and a debate with the worst performance by a candidate since the 1992 VP nominee James Stockdale (infamous for the “Who am I, Why am I hear?” speach).  However, as the week is drawing to a close and the dust is settling, I believe Newt Gingrich is proving to be the big winner.

Previously I theorized that as interest in Cain begins to wane,  Newt Gingrich would be the next ‘flavor of the week’.  I believe that this is happening now.  Newt has been slowly and steadily gaining ground in the general standings, largely due to his debate performances.  The RCP GOP polling average as of 11/11 shows that Newt gained five Percentage points in the last ten days, and two points in the last two days.  Also the McClatchy-Marist Poll has Newt ahead of Cain 19 to 17%. 

At the same time, Herman Cain’s poll numbers are starting to slip.  RCP has him down 4 points in the last 10 days.  The same polls show Cain as having dropped below Romney.  Possibly the scandal is finally catching up to him.  Personally I am not convinced there is anything to the recent accusations.  However I think he has managed this scandal very badly, and I doubt he will he will be able to handle attacks in the general election any better.

On the other hand Mitt Romney‘s numbers have stayed flat.  Despite his ‘inevitability,’ He cannot seem to climb above 25%.  The the distrust of the conservative branch of the GOP will likely prevent him from getting much higher.  For him to win the conservative vote must remain split between two or three top tier ‘Not Romney’ candidates. 

Poor, poor Rick Perry.  His terrible performance in the debate Wednesday is likely the nail in the coffin for him.  I can’t say it any better than Meredith Jessup (@MeanwhileinDC):

RIP Rick Perry presidential campaign. Time of death: Wend @ 8:15 p.m. Last words: ‘Oops.’

He will have to have a stupendous performance in the next six debates (whew) between now and Jan third.  Not likely.

Ron Paul is Ron Paul.  He will continue to do well among his base.  He has consistently been the advocate and defender of the original intent of the constitution (in most situations).  I think he has helped move the conversation to the right more than anyone else in the last four years (save Obama).  Many of the ideas he had in ‘08 seemed outlandish and extreme.  Now however conservatives are calling more of his ideas their own. 

I have been asked by a John Huntsman supporter to include him in my analysis. So here it goes:  He, like Rick Santorum and Michelle Bachmann have no chance of winning the nominations (sorry, you asked).  I hate to be cruel, but IMHO these candidates need to consider if there presence is the race is preventing a better candidate from having a chance (Huntsman need not worry). 

Personally I am starting to like Newt.  He is clearly the best of the candidates at explaining and defending conservative values.  He has a (mostly) conservative record including service with Ronald Reagan, the first Contract with America, the ‘94 house majority, and a balanced budget for 4 years.  He has significant government (and business) experience.  Although Cain’s business experience is very appealing to me, I don’t want a candidate who is so new to politics that he takes a ‘my way or the highway’ approach to governing.  This approach only works if a majority of representatives in both houses share your agenda.  I am no moderate, I want our representatives to stay true to conservative values.  But it takes political experience to get your agenda done, either through political arm twisting, or by taking your case straight to the America people.  Newt has experience in both.  His moral issues are a liability, however they are somewhat over blown (the ‘deathbed divorce’ did not really happen).  Although attacks similar to Cain’s are likely to appear, Newt  has shown he is more than able to manage the press. 

Update: Just watched the CBS/National Journal Foreign Policy debate.  I would add to the above that Newt did very well as usual, Romney did well also. However Cain seemed unprepared and out of his element. You can only say 'I will figure it out when I get there' so long.

My Republican Presidential Nominee Scorecard Nov 4

It is 453 days until the next president is sworn in.  Almost a year till our nation chooses that President, and hopefully sends the current occupant to the unemployment benefits line.  And we are only 60 days until a GOP nominee is chosen in the first primary, the Iowa Caucuses.  Given that much of the time between now January 3rd are in the holidays, we are close to crunch time for the GOP candidates. 

It is amazing how volatile this primary has been so far this year.  The last month and especially this last week have been particularly so.  Between Herman Cain’s unexpected rise, his current scandal, and other candidates such as Perry taking swipes at each other, there are a lot of fireworks.  It is anyone’s guess which one of the top 4 candidates, will be at the top 30 days from now. 

Personally, although I have been following this election closely, I have yet to make up my mind about who I will vote for.  In these last few weeks, my preferences have changed almost daily.  So here are the current standings (as of 11/4) for my nominee in order of preference.

Newt Gingrich (trending up) – Newt has slowly but surely moving up in the polls for a long time.  He brings solid government experience, a good foundation in conservative values, and clearly the best articulator and debater of those values.  He does carry some baggage, not just his moral issues, but some of his positions he has taken over the years as a pundit are liabilities.  However, when I step back and look at Newt, I can’t say he would not make a good president with conservative values, and the ability to articulate and implement those values.  If Herman Cain does fall, I believe he (and or Perry) will immediately make great gains and could even be the next ‘flavor of the month’ as Sarah Palin would say.  

Herman Cain (trending down) – I like Herman Cain and until recently would have been very happy with him.  I am not a fan of a flat tax, but he has a well thought out plan.  He is also a conservative’s conservative, possibly the most conservative of all the candidates in the top tier.  This current scandal would not have changed my opinion of him, however the way he has handled it does!  He has been unclear, has changed his story several times, blame shifted and baselessly accused other candidates.  The attack seems to have caught the campaign completely off guard.  Given they are newbies, I would give them a couple of days to get things together.  However it is 5 days later and the Cain campaign still does not have clear message.  This speaks of political naivety that will not serve us well if Cain is the nominee or even the president. 

Rick Perry (trending flat) – I liked Perry initially, and was recently looking at him again.  However looking at his record, he has a lot of non-conservative liabilities beyond the HPV vaccine and college tuition for Illegals (see http://bit.ly/vJk5Tz).  His inability to debate and communicate well are huge negatives.  Like with Cain, I can understand it would take him a while to hone his debate skills, but not this long.  And it given the Cain scandal, it was SO the wrong time to give his surreal NH speech (http://bit.ly/vEfZOa). However I like his recent economy plan, if only because it was well thought-out and decently communicated plan.  As I see it, He is a very good alternative to Romney.

Mitt Romney (trending down) – Ah, where to start with Romney.  What get’s me most about Romney is his inability to consistently hold the same position.  Right now he (mostly) gives lip service to being on the right side of conservative issues.  However he has switched positions so many times, [add clever statement about whip-lash here].  Previously he has been pro-choice, then not pro-choice, then pro choice again, and finally pro-life.  At one time, Romney has been pro amnesty, anti Bush tax cuts, anti contract with America, pro Brady bill… (http://bit.ly/w4pDBC), you get the idea.  Obviously the real issue here is his trust-worthiness.  Is he saying what he really believes now, or is he saying whatever he needs to be elected.  After his ridiculous statement about Christ in 2008 (“I believe that Jesus Christ is the Son of God and the Savior of mankind”) it is difficult to trust him.  Let me be clear: Mormons and Christians do not believe the same thing about Christ, and to try to say so is deceptive and frankly dishonest.  (Please do not flame me: I am not making a statement on Mormonism, just on Romney’s presentation of Mormonism.)  However on the plus side, Romney has been running for years, has a very organized campaign.  This will be very good thing to have when going against Obama’s political steam-roller in the general election.  Like his policies or not, I am confident in his ability to govern. 

In the end I will gladly vote for any of these candidate in the general election (any day of the week and twice on Tuesday).  However I don’t want to settle for a moderate.  So I (and I expect a huge percentage of the GOP) are looking very closely at these candidates.