It is 453 days until the next president is sworn in. Almost a year till our nation chooses that President, and hopefully sends the current occupant to the unemployment benefits line. And we are only 60 days until a GOP nominee is chosen in the first primary, the Iowa Caucuses. Given that much of the time between now January 3rd are in the holidays, we are close to crunch time for the GOP candidates.
It is amazing how volatile this primary has been so far this year. The last month and especially this last week have been particularly so. Between Herman Cain’s unexpected rise, his current scandal, and other candidates such as Perry taking swipes at each other, there are a lot of fireworks. It is anyone’s guess which one of the top 4 candidates, will be at the top 30 days from now.
Personally, although I have been following this election closely, I have yet to make up my mind about who I will vote for. In these last few weeks, my preferences have changed almost daily. So here are the current standings (as of 11/4) for my nominee in order of preference.
Newt Gingrich (trending up) – Newt has slowly but surely moving up in the polls for a long time. He brings solid government experience, a good foundation in conservative values, and clearly the best articulator and debater of those values. He does carry some baggage, not just his moral issues, but some of his positions he has taken over the years as a pundit are liabilities. However, when I step back and look at Newt, I can’t say he would not make a good president with conservative values, and the ability to articulate and implement those values. If Herman Cain does fall, I believe he (and or Perry) will immediately make great gains and could even be the next ‘flavor of the month’ as Sarah Palin would say.
Herman Cain (trending down) – I like Herman Cain and until recently would have been very happy with him. I am not a fan of a flat tax, but he has a well thought out plan. He is also a conservative’s conservative, possibly the most conservative of all the candidates in the top tier. This current scandal would not have changed my opinion of him, however the way he has handled it does! He has been unclear, has changed his story several times, blame shifted and baselessly accused other candidates. The attack seems to have caught the campaign completely off guard. Given they are newbies, I would give them a couple of days to get things together. However it is 5 days later and the Cain campaign still does not have clear message. This speaks of political naivety that will not serve us well if Cain is the nominee or even the president.
Rick Perry (trending flat) – I liked Perry initially, and was recently looking at him again. However looking at his record, he has a lot of non-conservative liabilities beyond the HPV vaccine and college tuition for Illegals (see http://bit.ly/vJk5Tz). His inability to debate and communicate well are huge negatives. Like with Cain, I can understand it would take him a while to hone his debate skills, but not this long. And it given the Cain scandal, it was SO the wrong time to give his surreal NH speech (http://bit.ly/vEfZOa). However I like his recent economy plan, if only because it was well thought-out and decently communicated plan. As I see it, He is a very good alternative to Romney.
Mitt Romney (trending down) – Ah, where to start with Romney. What get’s me most about Romney is his inability to consistently hold the same position. Right now he (mostly) gives lip service to being on the right side of conservative issues. However he has switched positions so many times, [add clever statement about whip-lash here]. Previously he has been pro-choice, then not pro-choice, then pro choice again, and finally pro-life. At one time, Romney has been pro amnesty, anti Bush tax cuts, anti contract with America, pro Brady bill… (http://bit.ly/w4pDBC), you get the idea. Obviously the real issue here is his trust-worthiness. Is he saying what he really believes now, or is he saying whatever he needs to be elected. After his ridiculous statement about Christ in 2008 (“I believe that Jesus Christ is the Son of God and the Savior of mankind”) it is difficult to trust him. Let me be clear: Mormons and Christians do not believe the same thing about Christ, and to try to say so is deceptive and frankly dishonest. (Please do not flame me: I am not making a statement on Mormonism, just on Romney’s presentation of Mormonism.) However on the plus side, Romney has been running for years, has a very organized campaign. This will be very good thing to have when going against Obama’s political steam-roller in the general election. Like his policies or not, I am confident in his ability to govern.
In the end I will gladly vote for any of these candidate in the general election (any day of the week and twice on Tuesday). However I don’t want to settle for a moderate. So I (and I expect a huge percentage of the GOP) are looking very closely at these candidates.
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