Previously I theorized that as interest in Cain begins to wane, Newt Gingrich would be the next ‘flavor of the week’. I believe that this is happening now. Newt has been slowly and steadily gaining ground in the general standings, largely due to his debate performances. The RCP GOP polling average as of 11/11 shows that Newt gained five Percentage points in the last ten days, and two points in the last two days. Also the McClatchy-Marist Poll has Newt ahead of Cain 19 to 17%.
At the same time, Herman Cain’s poll numbers are starting to slip. RCP has him down 4 points in the last 10 days. The same polls show Cain as having dropped below Romney. Possibly the scandal is finally catching up to him. Personally I am not convinced there is anything to the recent accusations. However I think he has managed this scandal very badly, and I doubt he will he will be able to handle attacks in the general election any better.
On the other hand Mitt Romney‘s numbers have stayed flat. Despite his ‘inevitability,’ He cannot seem to climb above 25%. The the distrust of the conservative branch of the GOP will likely prevent him from getting much higher. For him to win the conservative vote must remain split between two or three top tier ‘Not Romney’ candidates.
Poor, poor Rick Perry. His terrible performance in the debate Wednesday is likely the nail in the coffin for him. I can’t say it any better than Meredith Jessup (@MeanwhileinDC):
RIP Rick Perry presidential campaign. Time of death: Wend @ 8:15 p.m. Last words: ‘Oops.’He will have to have a stupendous performance in the next six debates (whew) between now and Jan third. Not likely.
Ron Paul is Ron Paul. He will continue to do well among his base. He has consistently been the advocate and defender of the original intent of the constitution (in most situations). I think he has helped move the conversation to the right more than anyone else in the last four years (save Obama). Many of the ideas he had in ‘08 seemed outlandish and extreme. Now however conservatives are calling more of his ideas their own.
I have been asked by a John Huntsman supporter to include him in my analysis. So here it goes: He, like Rick Santorum and Michelle Bachmann have no chance of winning the nominations (sorry, you asked). I hate to be cruel, but IMHO these candidates need to consider if there presence is the race is preventing a better candidate from having a chance (Huntsman need not worry).
Personally I am starting to like Newt. He is clearly the best of the candidates at explaining and defending conservative values. He has a (mostly) conservative record including service with Ronald Reagan, the first Contract with America, the ‘94 house majority, and a balanced budget for 4 years. He has significant government (and business) experience. Although Cain’s business experience is very appealing to me, I don’t want a candidate who is so new to politics that he takes a ‘my way or the highway’ approach to governing. This approach only works if a majority of representatives in both houses share your agenda. I am no moderate, I want our representatives to stay true to conservative values. But it takes political experience to get your agenda done, either through political arm twisting, or by taking your case straight to the America people. Newt has experience in both. His moral issues are a liability, however they are somewhat over blown (the ‘deathbed divorce’ did not really happen). Although attacks similar to Cain’s are likely to appear, Newt has shown he is more than able to manage the press.
Update: Just watched the CBS/National Journal Foreign Policy debate. I would add to the above that Newt did very well as usual, Romney did well also. However Cain seemed unprepared and out of his element. You can only say 'I will figure it out when I get there' so long.
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